Sales Forecast Calculator
Forecast MRR using growth and pipeline conversion assumptions.
Result
After 12 months MRR reaches $311,753.36: $126,720 from won deals (8.8 a month) and $105,033.36 from 5% monthly organic growth, which compounds on the deals too. Churn is not modelled, so treat this as gross new MRR.
Where the MRR at the horizon comes from
Monthly recurring revenue after 12 months.
How do you calculate a sales projection?
Start from what you sell in a month today and apply two drivers every month: growth on the revenue you already have, and new revenue from deals you close. The calculator runs this loop for each month of the horizon:
Next month = this month × (1 + monthly growth %) + new opportunities × close rate % × revenue per won deal
The total for the period adds up the revenue of every month in it. Growth compounds: it applies to revenue from earlier deals as well, so a deal closed in month 2 is growing by month 12. Lost customers are not subtracted, which makes the result a gross forecast; take expected churn off before you plan hiring or cash against it.
Worked examples, computed by this calculator
Each row is the calculator's own output for the stated inputs over 12 months.
| Scenario | Revenue in month 12 | Total over 12 months | Added by won deals, before growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| $20,000 a month, growing 3% a month, no sales pipeline | $28,515 | $292,356 | $0 |
| $10,000 MRR, 2% growth, 20 opportunities at 25% and $300 | $32,801 | $262,828 | $18,000 |
| Starting from zero: 30 opportunities at 20% and $500, no growth | $36,000 | $234,000 | $36,000 |
| Calculator defaults ($80,000 MRR, 5%, 40 at 22%, $1,200) | $311,753 | $2,332,421 | $126,720 |
The first row is the plain projection most businesses need: no pipeline, just this month's sales and a growth rate. $20,000 a month growing 3% a month is $28,515 a month a year later and $292,356 over the twelve months. The third row shows the opposite case, a business built only from closed deals: 30 opportunities a month closing at 20% add $3,000 of monthly revenue each month, so month 12 reaches $36,000.
Build a range, not a single number
Close rate is the input most forecasts get wrong. Moving it five points either side of the default 22% changes month-12 revenue like this:
| Case | Close rate | Revenue in month 12 | Total over 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|
| Downside | 17% | $273,552 | $2,106,197 |
| Base | 22% | $311,753 | $2,332,421 |
| Upside | 27% | $349,954 | $2,558,644 |
Ten points of close rate separate $273,552 from $349,954 in month 12. Plan hiring and cash on the downside or base case and keep the upside for targets. Take the close rate from your own closed-won deals over the last six to twelve months, not from a quota; the calculator warns above 40%, where a forecast usually rests on hope rather than history.
Turning an annual growth target into a monthly rate
The growth input is per month and compounds. Dividing an annual target by 12 overstates it, because monthly growth compounds into more than its sum. The monthly rate that delivers an annual target is (1 + annual rate)1/12 − 1:
| Annual growth | Monthly rate to enter | Annual ÷ 12 (overstated) |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | 0.80% | 0.83% |
| 20% | 1.53% | 1.67% |
| 50% | 3.44% | 4.17% |
| 100% | 5.95% | 8.33% |
Which sales forecasting method fits your business?
- Growth-rate projection. This month's sales compounded at a steady monthly rate. Fits shops, services and products with a few months of stable history. Set opportunities to 0.
- Pipeline forecast. Opportunities × close rate × deal value. Fits sales-led businesses where revenue arrives deal by deal. Set growth to 0 if existing customers neither expand nor refer.
- Both together, which is what the defaults show: a subscription business whose existing revenue grows while sales adds new accounts.
The pipeline part assumes each won deal keeps paying every month, the way a subscription does. If your deals are one-off sales, a won deal's revenue lands once, so forecast those with the growth-rate method on total monthly sales instead. Bottom-up capacity forecasts (sales reps × quota attainment) and seasonality are not modelled; for those, run each season as its own scenario. The sales forecast examples walk through more businesses.
Common mistakes in a sales forecast
- Entering an annual growth rate as monthly. 20% a year is 1.53% a month. Entering 20 makes month 12 almost nine times today's revenue.
- Using annual contract value as the deal size. The calculator wants revenue per month, so divide an annual contract by 12.
- Taking close rate from a target. Use closed-won ÷ opportunities created over a real period. At the defaults, each point of close rate is worth about $7,640 of month-12 revenue.
- Forgetting churn. The result is gross. If you lose 3% of revenue a month, subtract it before planning; the churn retention calculator sizes that loss.
- Counting the same growth twice. If organic growth already includes deals from your sales team, set the pipeline to zero or lower the growth rate.
What does the Sales Forecast Calculator calculate, and which formula does it use?
The sales forecast calculator projects revenue month by month: each month, revenue grows by your monthly growth rate, then won deals are added (new opportunities × close rate × revenue per deal). It returns revenue in the final month and the total over the period. A business selling $20,000 a month and growing 3% a month reaches $28,515 a month after 12 months, $292,356 over the year. Churn is not modelled.
Last updated .
How to use it
- Enter starting MRR, monthly organic growth, pipeline conversion rate, the new MRR each won deal adds (an annual contract divided by 12), new opportunities per month, and forecast months. Use historical close rates and current pipeline generation, not sales targets, because small assumption errors compound every month.
- Read projected MRR at the horizon, cumulative forecast revenue, the monthly pipeline contribution, and how much of the horizon MRR came from won deals versus organic growth. Churn is not modelled, so treat the result as gross new MRR. Pipeline conversion above 40% is flagged because it often produces a forecast that looks precise but is not grounded in real close performance.
- Separate growth driven by compounding from growth driven by pipeline volume. If most of the forecast lift comes from new opportunities times conversion times deal size, the forecast is mainly a sales-capacity bet rather than a durable momentum story.
- Build at least downside, base, and upside cases by moving conversion 5-10 points and opportunity volume 10-20%. Use the downside or base case for hiring and cash planning, and reserve the upside case for stretch goals or investor discussion.
- Re-run monthly as pipeline ages, close rates shift, or deal size changes. Compare forecasted MRR versus actual MRR each month so the model gets calibrated to your true win-rate behavior.
Questions people usually ask
How do you calculate a sales projection?
Take this month's sales, grow them by your monthly growth rate, and add the revenue from deals you expect to close (new opportunities × close rate × revenue per deal). Repeat for every month of the horizon and add the months up for the period total. The calculator does exactly this and shows the month-12 figure and the 12-month total.
Can I forecast sales for a business without subscriptions?
Yes. Enter this month's total sales as the starting figure, your monthly growth rate, and set new opportunities to 0. The result is a growth-rate projection of monthly sales and the total over the horizon. The pipeline inputs assume each won deal keeps paying every month, so use them only for recurring revenue.
What monthly growth rate should I use?
Your own recent average, converted to a monthly rate. An annual target becomes a monthly rate as (1 + annual rate)^(1/12) − 1: 20% a year is about 1.53% a month, not 20 ÷ 12 = 1.67%. Entering an annual figure as monthly is the most common way a forecast explodes.
What close rate should I enter?
Closed-won deals divided by opportunities created over the last six to twelve months. Quota-based or hoped-for rates inflate the forecast; the calculator warns when conversion is above 40%. Run the downside and upside cases by moving the rate about five points each way.
Does the forecast include churn?
No. Lost customers are not subtracted, so the result is gross revenue. Subtract expected churn before using it for hiring or cash decisions.
Can this replace a full finance model?
No. It is best for fast planning, founder decisions, and scenario pressure-testing before you open a bigger model.
Is this tool free and private to use?
Yes. AI Biz Hub tools are free, no-signup browser tools. Inputs stay in your browser unless you choose to share a URL.
Is this professional advice?
No. Outputs are business planning estimates — not legal, tax, or accounting advice.
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Background on the Sales Forecast Calculator
- Examples Sales Forecast Examples: 4 Worked SaaS Revenue Forecasts
Sales forecast examples: four worked SaaS revenue forecasts with a month-by-month table, showing how starting MRR, growth and pipeline conversion compound.
Articles
- 8 min read How to Create Financial Projections (3-Statement Model)
Create a defensible 3-statement financial model driven by pipeline, retention, and headcount, then stress-test it with P50, P75, and downside scenarios.
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Use it from code
The same calculation as a JavaScript module you can import. It runs where you import it, with no request, key or rate limit.
import { compute } from "https://aibizhub.io/engines/sales-forecast-calculator.js";Input and output contract, TypeScript types and the guide for agents.