What inputs does the Runway With AI Cost Shock need?

It takes 6 inputs: currentRunwayMonths, monthlyAiCostUsd, monthlyTotalBurnUsd, priceShockPercent, revenueGrowthMonthly, monthlyRevenueUsd. Outputs returned: newRunwayMonths, breakEvenMonthlyRevenue, monthsToBreakEvenAtGrowth.

Can I verify the Runway With AI Cost Shock with a worked example?

Yes. With 18 mo runway, $12k AI, $80k burn, 50% shock, 8%/mo growth, $25k revenue. the tool returns newRunway ≈ 23.6 mo, break-even $86k, monthsToBreakEven ≈ 16.

Where does the Runway With AI Cost Shock get its benchmark data?

Reference data is sourced from: Carta — State of Private Markets (as of 2024-Q4); SaaS Capital Annual Survey (as of 2024).

What can the Runway With AI Cost Shock not tell me?

Known limitations: AI cost cannot exceed total burn (validated). For multi-vendor stacks treat the combined AI line as a single field. Doesn't model spend optimization (caching, smaller models) that often counters shocks.

Methodology: Runway With AI Cost Shock

1. Scope

Recomputes runway after a hypothetical AI vendor price shock and reports break-even revenue plus months to recover at compound monthly growth.

2. Inputs and outputs

Inputs

currentRunwayMonths number
monthlyAiCostUsd number ($)
monthlyTotalBurnUsd number ($)
priceShockPercent number
revenueGrowthMonthly number (0–1)
monthlyRevenueUsd number ($)

Outputs

newRunwayMonths

Cash / (new burn − revenue).
breakEvenMonthlyRevenue

Revenue equal to new burn.
monthsToBreakEvenAtGrowth

log(target/current) / log(1+g).

Engine source: src/lib/runway-with-ai-cost-shock/engine.ts

3. Formula / scoring logic

cash = current_runway × current_burn
new_ai = ai × (1 + shock/100)
new_burn = total_burn − ai + new_ai
new_runway = cash / max(0, new_burn − revenue)
months_to_break = log(new_burn / revenue) / log(1 + g)

4. Assumptions

Single-shock single-step model. Doesn't simulate staged price increases or hedge contracts.
Revenue growth is compounded monthly — no seasonality or churn drag.

5. Data sources

Carta — State of Private Markets as of 2024-Q4
SaaS Capital Annual Survey as of 2024

6. Known limitations

AI cost cannot exceed total burn (validated). For multi-vendor stacks treat the combined AI line as a single field.
Doesn't model spend optimization (caching, smaller models) that often counters shocks.

7. Reproducibility

Input
18 mo runway, $12k AI, $80k burn, 50% shock, 8%/mo growth, $25k revenue.

Expected output
newRunway ≈ 23.6 mo, break-even $86k, monthsToBreakEven ≈ 16.

8. Change log

2026-05-08 methodology first published.

Worked example

Run live against the same engine this site ships (/engines/runway-with-ai-cost-shock.js). The inputs and outputs below are recomputed on every build and independently re-verified in CI — they are never hand-authored.

Input

tool: runway_with_ai_cost_shock
current_runway_months: 18
monthly_ai_cost_usd: 12000
monthly_total_burn_usd: 80000
price_shock_percent: 50
revenue_growth_monthly: 8
monthly_revenue_usd: 25000

Output

shockedMonthlyAiCost: 18000
cumulativeAiCostIncreaseAnnual: 72000
newMonthlyBurnAtShock: 86000
cashOnHand: 1440000
newRunwayMonths: 23.61
breakEvenMonthlyRevenue: 86000
monthsToBreakEvenAtGrowth: 16.05

Frequently asked questions

What does the Runway With AI Cost Shock calculate?: Recomputes runway after a hypothetical AI vendor price shock and reports break-even revenue plus months to recover at compound monthly growth.
What inputs does the Runway With AI Cost Shock need?: It takes 6 inputs: currentRunwayMonths, monthlyAiCostUsd, monthlyTotalBurnUsd, priceShockPercent, revenueGrowthMonthly, monthlyRevenueUsd. Outputs returned: newRunwayMonths, breakEvenMonthlyRevenue, monthsToBreakEvenAtGrowth.
What formula does the Runway With AI Cost Shock use?: The exact computation is: cash = current_runway × current_burn; new_ai = ai × (1 + shock/100); new_burn = total_burn − ai + new_ai; new_runway = cash / max(0, new_burn − revenue); months_to_break = log(new_burn / revenue) / log(1 + g)
Can I verify the Runway With AI Cost Shock with a worked example?: Yes. With 18 mo runway, $12k AI, $80k burn, 50% shock, 8%/mo growth, $25k revenue. the tool returns newRunway ≈ 23.6 mo, break-even $86k, monthsToBreakEven ≈ 16.
Where does the Runway With AI Cost Shock get its benchmark data?: Reference data is sourced from: Carta — State of Private Markets (as of 2024-Q4); SaaS Capital Annual Survey (as of 2024).
What can the Runway With AI Cost Shock not tell me?: Known limitations: AI cost cannot exceed total burn (validated). For multi-vendor stacks treat the combined AI line as a single field. Doesn't model spend optimization (caching, smaller models) that often counters shocks.