What inputs does the Free Trial to Paid Target need?

It takes 6 inputs: targetMonthlyRevenue, ltvPerPaidUser, cacPerSignup, trialSignupsPerMonth, churnAfterTrialMonthly, arpuMonthly. Outputs returned: requiredConversionRatePercent, paybackMonths, ltvCacRatio.

Can I verify the Free Trial to Paid Target with a worked example?

Yes. With Target $50k, ARPU $49, 2000 signups, LTV $800, CAC $25, 4% churn. the tool returns required ≈ 51.02%, payback ≈ 0.53 mo, LTV/CAC = 32.

Where does the Free Trial to Paid Target get its benchmark data?

Reference data is sourced from: OpenView SaaS Benchmarks (as of 2024); Gainsight retention benchmarks (as of 2024).

What can the Free Trial to Paid Target not tell me?

Known limitations: Doesn't model trial extension, paywall friction, or freemium conversion. Assumes signup volume is independent of conversion rate — in reality reducing friction can shift both.

Methodology: Free Trial to Paid Target

1. Scope

Solves for the trial→paid conversion rate required to hit a monthly revenue target given trial signup volume, ARPU, and post-trial churn. Reports payback months, LTV/CAC, and ±10% signup sensitivity.

2. Inputs and outputs

Inputs

targetMonthlyRevenue number ($)
ltvPerPaidUser number ($)
cacPerSignup number ($)
trialSignupsPerMonth number
churnAfterTrialMonthly number (0–1)
arpuMonthly number ($)

Outputs

requiredConversionRatePercent

Conversion needed to clear target.
paybackMonths

CAC / (ARPU × (1 − churn)).
ltvCacRatio

LTV / CAC.

Engine source: src/lib/free-trial-to-paid-target/engine.ts

3. Formula / scoring logic

paid_required = target / ARPU
required_% = paid_required / signups × 100
payback = CAC / (ARPU × (1 − churn))

4. Assumptions

First-month estimate — ignores compounding from prior cohorts.
ARPU is taken as gross billing, not contribution margin.

5. Data sources

OpenView SaaS Benchmarks as of 2024
Gainsight retention benchmarks as of 2024

6. Known limitations

Doesn't model trial extension, paywall friction, or freemium conversion.
Assumes signup volume is independent of conversion rate — in reality reducing friction can shift both.

7. Reproducibility

Input
Target $50k, ARPU $49, 2000 signups, LTV $800, CAC $25, 4% churn.

Expected output
required ≈ 51.02%, payback ≈ 0.53 mo, LTV/CAC = 32.

8. Change log

2026-05-08 methodology first published.

Worked example

Run live against the same engine this site ships (/engines/free-trial-to-paid-target.js). The inputs and outputs below are recomputed on every build and independently re-verified in CI — they are never hand-authored.

Input

tool: free_trial_to_paid_target
target_monthly_revenue: 50000
ltv_per_paid_user: 800
cac_per_signup: 25
trial_signups_per_month: 2000
churn_after_trial_monthly: 4
arpu_monthly: 49

Output

requiredConversionRatePercent: 51.02
paidUsersRequired: 1020
paybackMonths: 0.53
ltvCacRatio: 32
conversionAt10PctMore: 46.38
conversionAt10PctLess: 56.69
monthlyRevenueAtCurrentSignups: 50000

Frequently asked questions

What does the Free Trial to Paid Target calculate?: Solves for the trial→paid conversion rate required to hit a monthly revenue target given trial signup volume, ARPU, and post-trial churn. Reports payback months, LTV/CAC, and ±10% signup sensitivity.
What inputs does the Free Trial to Paid Target need?: It takes 6 inputs: targetMonthlyRevenue, ltvPerPaidUser, cacPerSignup, trialSignupsPerMonth, churnAfterTrialMonthly, arpuMonthly. Outputs returned: requiredConversionRatePercent, paybackMonths, ltvCacRatio.
What formula does the Free Trial to Paid Target use?: The exact computation is: paid_required = target / ARPU; required_% = paid_required / signups × 100; payback = CAC / (ARPU × (1 − churn))
Can I verify the Free Trial to Paid Target with a worked example?: Yes. With Target $50k, ARPU $49, 2000 signups, LTV $800, CAC $25, 4% churn. the tool returns required ≈ 51.02%, payback ≈ 0.53 mo, LTV/CAC = 32.
Where does the Free Trial to Paid Target get its benchmark data?: Reference data is sourced from: OpenView SaaS Benchmarks (as of 2024); Gainsight retention benchmarks (as of 2024).
What can the Free Trial to Paid Target not tell me?: Known limitations: Doesn't model trial extension, paywall friction, or freemium conversion. Assumes signup volume is independent of conversion rate — in reality reducing friction can shift both.